“My job is to fight for every single person in this room, every person watching at home, as if they were my own family, as if they were my own kin. And so, I don’t just want these things for my kids, I want them for your kids, too… I want them to be able to afford a home where they can raise their children in peace and prosperity and comfort. … I want them to know the pride of saving up for something, of buying something big and real that they’re proud of without being outbid by Wall Street tycoons.”
That was Vice President J.D. Vance delivering the keynote address at the Republican Party’s first ever midterm convention on Sept. 10, addressing the high cost of living in the U.S. since the post-Covid inflation that outpaced average weekly earnings from April 2021 through May 2023 — leading to the downfall of former President Joe Biden and the defeat of former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 by President Donald Trump and Vance.
Vance’s remarks came as consumer prices have increased 3.4 percent the last twelve months, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The good news for U.S. households is that average weekly earnings have kept pace and increased 3.7 percent the past year.
Vance explained, “When we came into office just 18 months ago so many of our fellow Americans sensed that they’d been robbed of their chance to build a good life. They worried they’d never be able to afford a home, a family, or a real stake in the country that all of us love. Consider how life changed for Americans coming of age during those terrible Biden years. Workers’ wages fell by three grand. That’s not exaggeration. Prices rose 20 percent across the board. The worst inflation in a generation.”
Vance is right. By the time he and President Trump were sworn into office in Jan. 2025, prices had increased 21.7 percent cumulatively between 2021 and 2024, while incomes had only increased 17.4 percent, using the Bureau’s seasonally adjusted figures, a 4.3 percent gap. That was a bit lower than the peak in June 2022, 12.56 percent inflation versus 7 percent earnings increase, a 5.56 percent gap.
Today, the gap has dropped, with prices now up 27.7 percent since January 2021, while earnings are up 25.2 percent, a 2.75 percent gap — a significant improvement.
Which, is how periods of inflation usually go, whether in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s or 2000s: prices outpace incomes as the economy runs hot, and then afterward, incomes eventually catch back up and items become more affordable.
Before the war escalated in Iran in on Feb. 28, the U.S. economy was on pace to break even from the post-Covid inflation by Dec. 2026, according to an Americans for Limited Government Foundation analysis of the data, but after inflation outpaced earnings again in April and May as oil shipments declined through the Strait of Hormuz during the conflict, the break-even date has moved forward almost a year to October 2027 — and that’s if prices get back down to where they were before March. A big if.
Items like homes increased much more during the Biden years, increasing almost 38 percent during Biden’s term of office, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. Since January 2025, it’s only increased 4 percent since Trump and Vance took office.
Things are improving, but the question will be whether it will be enough to help out Vance and Republicans in 2026 and 2028.
After the midterms in November, Vice President Vance will be making up his mind about whether he’ll run for the third Trump term in 2028. Largely, Vance and Republicans will be judged on the state of the economy and Ronald Reagan’s old adage put to the American people in 1980: Are they better off than they were four years earlier?
Looking and inflation and incomes, that’s where the rubber meets the road in terms of Americans’ standard of living. Inflation is a majority killer, and when it has ever outpaced incomes for any significant amount of time, it in part led to the defeats of Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in 2024.
Will Americans break even on Bidenflation by 2028?
For Vance and Republicans, then, they have to hope continued improvement on affordability — things are getting better — and staying on message will be enough to improve public attitudes ahead of 2028. As usual, stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
