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By Robert Romano “That doesn’t sound like a recession to me.” That was President Joe Biden on July 28, right before he rushed away from reporters who likely had questions about the 0.9 percent contraction annualized of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter reported by the Bureau of […]

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By Robert Romano The U.S. economy contracted another 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a 1.6 percent decline in the first quarter and thus marking the second consecutive quarter of negative growth — usually thought to signal a recession — according to the latest data by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) . But wait, says […]

By Robert Romano Unemployment insurance continuing claims increased by 122,000 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis from July 2 to July 9 to 1.45 million, the latest U.S. Department of Labor data shows , as multiple historical recession signals are flashing red. The number comes as initial unemployment claims have continued ticking upward on both on […]

By Robert Romano “It is very hard to conclude that we are in a recession when you look at the payroll and the job gains that we’ve seen now, it is tricky to look around the corner here, and I’m not going to predict quarters down the […]

By Robert Romano Consumer inflation reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics ticked up to 9.1 percent the past 12 months, the highest since 1981, in what has to be a crushing blow to any chances of avoiding a recession in the U.S. this year. Food is up 10.4 percent unadjusted the past twelve months. Energy […]

By Robert Romano The spread between 10-year and 2-year treasuries, a reliable recession indicator that has predicted almost every recession in modern economic history, inverted for the third time this year on July 5. This followed inversions overnight on June 13 and on March 31 , following the worsening supply crisis, energy and food […]

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by Rick Manning Remember the mandate to fire anyone who wouldn’t be coerced into getting vaccinated craze that consumed much of the first year of the Biden presidency? Joe Biden is really hoping that you won’t. Airline disruptions and cancellations are part of the ongoing “supply chain” […]