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11.04.2022 0

Poll: Bolduc surprises and takes lead from Hassan for N.H. Senate seat, leads younger voters by 15 points

By Robert Romano

Republican New Hampshire Senatorial nominee Don Bolduc has jumped into the lead in his bid to defeat incumbent Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan, 48 percent to 47 percent, in the latest St. Anselm poll taken between Oct. 28 and Oct. 29.

Bolduc closed a previous gap of 9 points in the St. Anselm poll in late September, when Hassan led Bolduc 49 percent to 40 percent. With Hassan losing 2 points and Bolduc gaining 8 points, it appears late deciders are coming to the Republican candidate’s side.

Bolduc has opened a massive lead among younger voters, leading Hassan among 18-to-34-year-olds, 56 percent to 41 percent. That improves on Bolduc’s lead in the late September St. Anselm poll, when he led 18-to-34-year-olds 48 percent to 40 percent.

But the shift in the races comes as Bolduc, who was trailing Hassan among 35-to-54-year-olds and 55-to-64-year-olds by 12 points and 2 points, respectively, to now leading Hassan among those groups: 50 percent to 45 percent among 35-to-54-year-olds and 49 percent to 45 percent among 55-to-64-year-olds.

The economy and inflation expanded in importance in the polls, with 39 percent of voters saying they were the most important issues, up from 33 percent in September. And abortion decreased in importance to voters, from 20 percent in September to 19 percent today.

Among 18-to-34-year-olds, 41 percent say the economy and inflation are now the most important issues, and just 18 percent say abortion as Democratic hopes of leveraging the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade to galvanize younger Democratic voters into the Nov. 8 elections could be rapidly fading. In September, 38 percent said the economy and inflation as the most important issues, and 22 percent said abortion, showing that as time goes on the potency of the issue could be eroding.

The only age demographic Hassan is performing well with are seniors, who favor her 55 percent to 38 percent.

In national generic ballot polls taken during this cycle, and just generally in U.S. elections, younger voters tend to favor the Democratic candidate and older voters tend to favor the Republican candidate.

That might be the most interesting part of this race, with the Republican candidate leading younger voters and losing among older voters, and yet the same demographic breakdown occurred in the Trafalgar/Daily Wire poll in New Hampshire taken Oct. 30 to Nov. 1 that also found Bolduc leading the race among 18-to-64-year-olds but losing among seniors.

Is something strange happening in New Hampshire? We’ll find out next Tuesday. Stay tuned.

Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.   

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