11.07.2023 0

The poll that has Democrats scared shows Trump leading in five battleground states: AZ, GA, MI, NV and PA

By Robert Romano

The latest New York Times-Siena poll taken Oct. 22 to Nov. 3 shows former President Donald Trump leading incumbent President Joe Biden in five critical battleground states a year away from the 2024 election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

A sharp departure from the very closely contested 2020 election, Trump is up big in the states that matter the most, leading Arizona 49 percent to 44 percent, Georgia 49 percent to 43 percent, Michigan 48 percent to 43 percent, Nevada 52 percent to 41 percent and Pennsylvania 48 percent to 44 percent.

Biden only led in a single state, Wisconsin, 47 percent to 45 percent. But amongst undecideds in Wisconsin, when forced to choose, Trump is leading 26 percent to 21 percent. 53 percent didn’t know or refused to answer.

Interestingly, Trump and Biden split both young voters and old ones, with Biden leading among 18- to 29-year-olds by just 47 percent to 46 percent, and both candidates receiving 46 percent from 65-year-olds and above.

But among 30- to 44-year-olds, including older Millennials, Trump leads 47 percent to 44 percent, and among 45- to 64-year-olds, including Generation X, Trump leads by 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent.  

And among independents, Trump leads 45 percent to 44 percent. The difference in the poll is Trump picks up more Democrats than Biden picks up Republicans.

The very poor performance by the incumbent is an ominous sign for Democrats not only hoping to keep the White House and Senate in 2024, but reclaim the House of Representatives. A last-minute effort is underway to replace Biden, hoping the President’s negatives don’t rub off on Democrats if he were to be replaced.

But when polled, Kamala Harris does no better than Biden, losing six out of six of the same battleground states to Trump.

Similarly, when polled nationally, Trump has been easily leading Kamala Harris in most recent polls taken, according to the RealClearPolitics.com average of polls, showing Trump with a 46 percent to 42 percent edge.

Unfortunately for Democrats, they can’t run a generic candidate against Trump, and so the calls to replace Biden might even reach a fever pitch, but it is almost too late to act, with Democrats’ primary ballots for 2024 being finalized. And there is no certainty that such a move would even help Democrats.

The last time a president vacated his office, choosing not to run again, was 1968, and the result was the election of Richard Nixon.

When Harry Truman vacated the Presidency in 1952, the result was the election of Dwight Eisenhower.

In both cases, the outcome favored the opposition party, something Biden’s team will be savvy to as they look to preserve the President and also their own positions in power, arguing that the chaos of vacating the office has more of a tendency to hurt the incumbent by demonstrating electoral weakness and harming confidence.

The argument Democrats would have to make is effectively saying the country got so bad that they had to replace the sitting president, and they still want you to vote for them. For independents, that is, voters who tend to be free agents, that could be a kiss of death.

Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.

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