Former South Carolina Republican Gov. Nikki Haley’s prospects of securing the Republican nomination in 2024 over former President Donald Trump hit yet another firewall as Trump crushed Haley in the Feb. 27 Michigan GOP primary 68.1 percent to 26.6 percent.
Other than the Nevada caucus, in which Haley did not run, this was Trump’s widest margin of victory yet, garnering more than 759,000 votes to Haley’s 296,000. And it came in an open primary that allows voters of any party affiliation to vote in the primary. All of Haley’s strength in the presidential race so far has been in states that allow for more than registered party members to vote.
But for Haley it’s been a cycle of diminishing returns through the process so far, getting 43 percent in the Jan. 23 New Hampshire primary (open to unaffiliated), 39.5 percent in the Feb. 24 South Carolina primary (open) and down to 26.6 percent in Michigan (open).
Going forward, in the March 5 Super Tuesday primaries, only Alabama, Arkansas, Minnesota, Texas, Vermont and Virginia will have open primaries, and certainly provide Haley’s best chance of finally winning a state.
Meanwhile, Alaska, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah will have closed primaries to just Republicans, which Haley has been losing overwhelmingly in every single state. Independents and Democrats voting in the GOP primaries is her only chance — which is almost no chance at all. The March 4 North Dakota primary is similarly closed.
Other than that, Haley could win the not-so-coveted Washington, D.C. Republican primary on March 1 through March 3, cementing her image as the choice of the Washington, D.C. GOP establishment that Trump made his political career out of opposing.
Odds makers currently have Trump averaging an 86.4 percent chance of securing the Republican nomination at this point, with Haley only with a 7 percent chance, according to the latest average of national betting sites compiled by RealClearPolitics.com.
Which is only slightly worse than Haley’s standing in Republican primary polls, with Trump averaging 78.7 percent to Haley’s 14.5 percent according to the latest compilation of national polls compiled by RealClearPolling.com.
It’s less a question if Trump is going to win the nomination outright, but more when. At this point, it’s just a matter of time.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
