By Manzanita Miller
A calamitous new Siena College/ New York Times poll reveals President Joe Biden’s increasingly frayed coalition compared to 2020, as well as a massive enthusiasm gap that favors former President Donald Trump.
The nationwide poll of registered voters reveals Americans say by a two to one margin Biden’s policies have personally hurt them more than helped them, and Trump now leads Biden by five points – 48% to 43%.
Americans say by 25-point-margin – 43% to 18% – that Biden’s policies have personally hurt them more than helped them, and these margins are disastrous when looking at key coalitions of the Democratic base, including minorities, young people, and women.
Hispanics say by a margin of 21 points – 36% to 15% – that Biden’s policies have personally hurt them more than helped them and young people agree by a margin of 24 points – 34% to 10%. Let that sink in. Only 15% of Hispanics and 10% of younger voters say Biden’s policies have helped them, despite both groups favoring Biden by double digits in 2020. Women say by a 22-point margin – 40% to 18% – that Biden’s policies have personality hurt them more than helped them as well.
Unfortunately for Biden, voters remember the Trump presidency with significantly more fondness, and Americans say by a margin of 15 points – 40% to 25% – that Trump’s policies personally helped them.
Groups Biden cannot afford to lose this November strongly favor Trump’s governing as well, with Hispanics saying Trump’s policies personally helped them by a 15-point margin – 37% to 22%. Younger voters look back fondly on Trump’s governing, albeit by a smaller margin. Under thirties say Trump’s policies personally helped them by 6 points – 28% to 22% – while a majority say his policies neither helped nor hurt them. Women say Trump’s policies helped them by a 17-point margin – 41% to 24%.
Perhaps most troubling for Biden’s reelection prospect is just how large of an enthusiasm gap there is between his base and Trump’s. The Siena College poll reveals less than a quarter – 23% – of Democratic primary voters would be enthusiastic if Biden were the nominee, while a full 26% would be dissatisfied, and the majority would be satisfied but not enthusiastic. Voters of color are particularly unenthusiastic, with just 18% of Hispanics expressing enthusiasm for Biden becoming the Democratic nominee, and just 27% of Blacks expressing enthusiasm for Biden.
Former President Trump holds a strong lead on enthusiasm with 48% of GOP primary voters expressing enthusiasm for Trump becoming the nominee – a 25-point enthusiasm gap compared to Biden. Trump also holds higher enthusiasm ratings among swing voters, with Hispanic Republicans expressing the highest rate of enthusiasm compared to any other ethnic group. Fifty-two percent of Hispanic Republican primary voters are enthusiastic about Trump becoming the Republican nominee, compared to 49% of whites and 39% of Blacks.
The Times polling is far from the only recent poll to reveal significant challenges for Biden with key coalitions of the Democratic base. A February Morning Consult poll revealed that swing state voters say their financial situation was better off under Trump than Biden by a 21-point margin – 51% to 30%.
The poll also found minimal deviations between how Hispanics and whites rank the economy now compared to the economy during the Trump Administration. Both groups asserted they were better off under Trump by double-digits, with whites saying so by a 30-point margin and Hispanics saying so by a 24-point margin.
Voters are far from enthusiastic about Biden, and largely assert his policies have personally victimized them. He continues to lose ground with once-reliable Democratic coalitions, and there seems to be little Biden is able to do to turn his numbers around. Through his ineffectiveness and repeated betrayal of the American people, Biden may have set Democrats back decades with earning public trust.
Manzanita Miller is an associate analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
