A CBS News exit poll conducted March 5 for the Super Tuesday primary in North Carolina, which former President Donald Trump won 790,751 to 249,651, or 74 percent to 23 percent, found significant support for Trump across party lines that proved the key to the landslide victory there.
According to CBS News, of Trump’s supporters, 74 percent were Republicans, 25 percent were independents and 1 percent were Democrats. For Haley, 36 percent of her supporters were Republicans, 55 percent were independents and 9 percent were Democrats.
Doing some back of the envelope math, applying those percentages to the actual outcome, that means Trump carried Republicans 86.7 percent to 13.3 percent and independents 61.3 percent to 38.7 percent.
Haley carried Democrats, but only barely, 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent. Only 16,000 Democrats voted in the primary.
For a purple state like North Carolina — it has had a Democratic Governor since the 2016 election and Barack Obama carried it in 2008, but Trump carried it in 2016 and 2020 and Republicans have held both chambers of the legislature there since the 2010 election — the results are telling in explaining the utter domination by Trump in the 2024 Republican primaries and on Super Tuesday, knocking Haley out of the race.
That is, in a large state that matters in the general election like North Carolina, where voters know what’s at stake, Trump easily carried the vast majority of Republicans and convincing majority of independents, indicating both support and a belief that Trump can win.
Compare the outcome to a state that might matter a lot less in the general election, Virginia, which Democrats have carried in every presidential cycle since 2008 — the last GOP win there was George W. Bush in 2004 — and Republicans have only won the Governor’s mansion there recently in the 2009 and 2021 off-year elections.
In Virginia, Trump won 436,703 to 241,658, or 63 percent to 34.9 percent. Another convincing win, but with less of a margin of victory than North Carolina. So, what were the differences?
According to the CBS News exit poll, in Virginia, 78 percent of Trump’s supporters were Republicans, 20 percent were independents and 2 percent were Democrats. And 34 percent of Haley’s supporters were Republicans, 41 percent were independents and 25 percent were Democrats.
Breaking it down, that means Trump carried Republicans in Virginia 80.6 percent to 19.4 percent.
Whereas Haley carried independents 53.1 percent to 46.8 percent, and Democrats 87.4 percent to 12.6 percent.
Obviously, one major difference in Virginia are the substantial number of federal government employees and federal government contractors who commute to Washington, D.C., making it a bluer state in recent years as Northern Virginia has expanded in population. So, it’s not like most states when it comes to party politics. There are particular interests there that tend to favor Democrats in terms of a more pro-government electorate, hence why it was believed by some that Virginia might be a state where Haley could win.
As it turned out, not so much, as Trump still overwhelmingly carried the Republican vote, and did rather respectably with independents considering all those headwinds.
Meaning, once you get past the early primary states like the first in the nation New Hampshire, which has an open primary, and South Carolina, which is also open and also happened to be Haley’s home state, Trump’s natural advantage among independents voting in Republican primaries like North Carolina finally showed up.
It also shows up in CBS News’ most recent horse race poll between Trump and President Joe Biden taken at the end of February and beginning of March, where Trump leads 52 percent to 48 percent. The reason is simple: Although both Trump and Biden garner 96 percent of the Republican and Democratic vote in the polls, Trump is carrying independents 57 percent to 42 percent.
If the election were held today, with such substantial support among independents, Trump would likely defeat Biden and perhaps even win the popular vote doing so. The question will be if independents will remain sour against Biden through November. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
