President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are running neck and neck among Millennials in a Economist-YouGov poll take March 10 to March 12, with Biden leading Trump narrowly 41 percent to 36 percent among 30-to-44-year-olds, and 10 percent saying “other” that might be a proxy for Robert Kennedy, Jr.
Among 30-to-44-year-olds, that represents just a 3-point swing needed for Trump to begin leading among that age demographic. For comparison, in 2020, Biden led that demographic 54 percent to 33 percent in the last Economist-YouGov poll taken before the election.
That’s likely bad news for Biden, with Trump leading the incumbent president among 45-to-64-year-olds 48 percent to 41 percent, and among 65-years-old-and-olders 53 percent to 38 percent in the March 2024 poll.
Among 30-to-44-year-olds, 80 percent said inflation was “very important,” far more than any other issue. The only issue that ranked as high in terms of temperature was jobs and economy, with 76 percent saying the issue was “very important”.
For comparison, only 50 percent said abortion was “very important” and only 49 percent said immigration was “very important.” That compares with 57 percent of Democrats who said abortion was “very important” and 80 percent of Republicans who said immigration was “very important,” giving an idea to how those issue tend to tilt on a partisan basis.
When asked to rank all issues, inflation and jobs and economy win again, with 23 percent of 30-to-44-year-olds saying inflation and 16 percent saying jobs and economy. And this was the top choice among all age groups for all issues, meaning inflation and the economy are impacting 30-to-44-year-olds the most acutely compared to other age groups.
The reasons are obvious when one looks at the data: Since Feb. 2021 consumer prices are up 18 percent, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, but personal income measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis including government transfer payments is still only up 16.6 percent.
And when younger people start out in the labor force, naturally, they are making less money, whereas older voters who make more are able to weather the inflation more ably.
That will also be true even though inflation has slowed down from a peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022 to a current level of 3.2 percent in Feb. 2024, since prices have not actually decreased, nor have incomes caught up yet. And with just a little more than seven months to go until the election, time may be running out for Biden for that situation to improve. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
