06.10.2024 0

Trump still leads Biden in national polls after New York City conviction, 45.4 percent to 44.6 percent. Does it matter at all?

By Robert Romano

Former President Donald Trump is still leading incumbent President Joe Biden in national polls despite being convicted by a New York City jury on May 30, according to the latest average of polls taken since then compiled by RealClearPolling.com, with Trump leading Biden 45.4 percent to 44.6 percent.

The five-way race doesn’t help Biden either, with Trump leading Biden, Robert Kennedy, Jr., Cornell West and Jill Stein 42.1 percent to 40.1 percent to 8.6 percent to 1.4 percent to 1.7 percent, respectively.

That’s more or less how the race stood before the conviction. Does it matter at all?

When asked in the latest CBS News poll taken June 5 to June 7 in which Trump led Biden 50 percent to 49 percent, the Trump conviction ranks very low on the scale compared to other issues in the campaign, with 81 percent saying the economy is a major factor in their decision to vote, 75 percent saying inflation is a major factor, 62 percent saying crime is, 56 percent saying the U.S.-Mexico border is and only 28 percent who say the Trump conviction is.

Of the 28 percent who said the conviction was a major factor, that included 47 percent of Democrats, 28 percent of independents and just 9 percent of Republicans.

Otherwise, 27 percent said the conviction was only a minor factor and 55 percent said it was not a factor at all, including 37 percent of Democrats, 50 percent of independents and 78 percent of Republicans who said not a factor. 16 percent of Democrats, 22 percent of independents and 13 percent of Republicans said it was just a minor factor.

Voters are also not entirely convinced of the seriousness of the crimes from the New York City trial, with 60 percent of Democrats, 30 percent of independents and just 5 percent of Republicans saying the charges were very serious. 32 percent of Democrats, 23 percent of independents and 19 percent of Republican say the crimes were somewhat serious.

And 8 percent of Democrats, 47 percent of independents and 75 percent of Republicans say the crimes are either not very serious or not serious at all.

If anything, the conviction might be helping Trump, with 14 percent of Trump voters said they were backing him to show support after his conviction in New York City, including 19 percent of independents and 11 percent of Republicans. 16 percent of independents and 13 percent of Republicans supporting Trump said they were doing so in spite of the conviction. And 65 percent of independents and 75 percent of Republicans backing Trump said it wasn’t a factor at all.

That is not to say that there isn’t other shifting occurring in the polling as a result of the conviction, but so far, it doesn’t appear to be hurting much or could be a wash, where for every voter Trump might lose because of the conviction is replaced by another who is outraged by the conviction.

And the meantime, the advantage Trump has had in the national polling since Sept. 2023, implying that the national popular vote could be in play, continues unabated. For something that was supposed to inflict maximum damage on Trump — who still has time win back any support he might have lost — this cannot be great news for Biden.

Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.

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