More post-Democratic National Convention and Robert Kennedy leaving the presidential race polls keep coming out with one consistent theme: Vice President Kamala Harris has not made the sale the American people and remains below 50 percent in national polls — which leaves the race wide open in November.
So, where does Kamala Harris fall?
Looking at Yahoo News, Reuters-Ipsos, Quinnipiac, Economist-YouGov, USA Today-Suffolk, Rasmussen, Wall Street Journal, and Morning Consult, taken during and after the Democratic National Convention, Harris averages 47.25 percent, while her opponent, former President Donald Trump is averaging 45.12 percent.
In recent history, Al Gore got 48.4 percent of the national popular vote but barely lost the Electoral College to George W. Bush in 2000 and Hillary Clinton got 48.2 percent of the national popular vote in 2016 and similarly lost the Electoral College to former President Donald Trump.
Whereas, Barack Obama got 53 percent of the popular vote in 2008 and 51 percent in 2012, and Joe Biden got 51 percent in 2020, and both won their contests, although Biden’s 43,000 vote margin in the swings states of Wisconsin (23,000), Georgia (10,000) and Arizona (10,000) saw one of the most closely contested races in history.
With the recent polling, she appears to have more in common with Al Gore and Hillary Clinton than Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
Diving into the latest Economist-YouGov poll taken Aug. 25 to Aug. 27, wherein Harris led Trump by 47 percent to 45 percent, compared to the last Economist-YouGov polls taken before the 2016 and 2020 elections shows that Trump has largely improved among almost every single age demographic since 2016.
Among 18-29-year-olds, in 2016, Hillary Clinton led by 30 points, 54 percent to 24 percent. In 2020, that fell to 17 points, with Biden leading Trump 49 percent to 32 percent. Today it stands at 19 points, with Harris leading 52 percent to 33 percent.
Overall, Trump has improved by 11 points among young people on the spread and by 9 points on the sheer number since he ran the first time, although Harris does slightly better than Biden did in 2020.
Among 30-44-year-olds, Clinton led Trump by 14 points, 49 percent to 35 percent, Biden led Trump by 21 points, 54 percent to 33 percent and Harris leads Trump by 15 points, 53 percent to 38 percent.
Among 45-64-year-olds, the largest group, Clinton led Trump by 1 point, 44 percent to 43 percent, Biden led Trump by 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent and now Trump leads Harris by 5 points, 49 percent to 45 percent.
And among those 65-years-old-and-older, Trump led Clinton by 19 points, 56 percent to 37 percent, Biden led Trump by 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent, and Trump now leads Harris by 12 points, 53 percent to 41 percent.
The juxtaposition is that Harris does slightly better than Biden on 18-29-year-olds (but far worse than Clinton), but worse than Biden on 30-44-year-olds, 45-64-year-olds and seniors as Trump’s standing in the Economist-YouGov poll has improved markedly.
Interestingly, Trump also leads Harris among independents by 5 points, 42 percent to 37 percent. In 2020, Biden led Trump among independents by 9 points, 48 percent to 39 percent, whereas in 2016, Trump led Clinton among independents by 13 points, 44 percent to 31 percent. There, once again, Harris fares worse than Biden, but better than Clinton.
The numbers have to be troubling to Democrats and the Harris campaign watching the race closely. Following the convention, Harris should be at her apex of popularity, but so far, the race hasn’t moved at all. Perhaps the lack of details and policy specifics isn’t helping.
In the meantime, Harris might indeed need a national majority to win, and right now, with no bounce coming out of her convention, she doesn’t have one. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.