Democrats’ lead in the 2026 generic Congressional ballot dropped from 46 percent to 41 percent, to 44 percent to 41 percent, according to the latest Economist-YouGov poll taken May 1 to May 4 compared to April 24 to April 27.
Inside the poll, leading the partial slippage was drops in support for Democrats among men from 35 percent to 31 percent, among Hispanics from 43 percent to 38 percent and among independents from 30 percent to 26 percent.
But holding strong for Democrats are women, with females supporting Democrats 43 percent to 30 percent — a 13-point rout — while Republicans only have a 6-point lead among men, 37 percent to 31 percent, although that’s an improvement from April’s 38 percent to 35 percent. And so, Democrats still are winning the gender gap by 7 percentage points.
With President Donald Trump’s wins in 2016 and 2024, he was able to neutralize Democrats’ advantage among women and closing the so-called gender gap not by appealing more to women but by maximizing Republicans’ advantage among men.
In the 2024 CNN exit poll, Trump won men 55 percent to 43 percent while Kamala Harris only won women 53 percent to 45 percent — a five-percentage-point edge for Republicans. That was enough to win the popular vote in 2024.
In 2016, much the same thing happened, but with Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote but the gender gap was still neutralized: Trump won men 52 percent to 41 percent and Clinton won women 54 percent to 41 percent, a 2-percentage-point edge for Clinton nationally.
But it was regionally concentrated in blue states, whereas in the Rust Belt swing states, the gender gap favored Trump to still win the Electoral College, by winning the gender gap in Michigan by 1 percentage point, in Wisconsin by 4 points and in Pennsylvania by 4 percentage points.
The same patterns hold up for Congressional midterms. In 2022, Republicans won the gender gap in the House elections, winning men 56 percent to 42 percent, while Democrats only won women 53 percent to 45 percent — a 6-percentage-point edge. But Republicans only picked up 9 seats in the House.
For comparison, in 2018, Democrats easily won the gender gap, with Republicans only winning men 51 percent to 47 percent, while Democrats won women 59 percent to 40 percent. That year, Democrats won the gender gap by a whopping 15 percentage points, and it showed in the 41 seats they picked up in the House.
Therefore, any movement whatsoever on the gender gap in the 2026 midterms is definitely worth watching. Whoever wins it will win the election.
And that could once again come down to the economy.
Once again, like in 2024, the economy and particularly inflation are topping the issues in the current election, at 27 percent in April and now 31 percent in May.
It’s the issue that catapulted President Trump back into the Oval Office, and it is the issue he has been struggling with, garnering a 69 percent disapproval rating — even worse than Joe Biden — as the oil shock from the Iran War continues.
And yet, even though only 60 percent of Republicans approve of the President’s handling of inflation, 86 percent say they are voting for the Republican candidate for Congress. Only 1 percent of Republicans say they’re voting for the Democrat.
To do well in the midterms, all Democrats need to do is be the not-crazy alternative to President Trump and Republicans, and the economic issues likely would carry them across the finish line.
Instead, they have gravitated to the riskier, hot button issues like immigration, proclaiming radical open borders and defunding immigration enforcement policies as top agenda items with their high profile just-ended government shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security. They cannot seem to help themselves — and it could be hurting them in the current cycle.
Given how low the President’s numbers on the economy and inflation are, what might be remarkable is how small Democrats’ lead in generic ballot currently is. But we’ll find out in November. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
