Since 2006, the White House incumbent party has overperformed in Congressional midterms compared to presidential approval ratings, with a string of unpopular presidents being sunk by issues including the Iraq War, the Great Recession, Russiagate and post-Covid inflation, and yet their political parties appearing more resilient.
From 2006 to 2022, presidential approval measured by Gallup averaged 40.6 percent around the time of the midterms, but the popular vote for the incumbent party averaged 45.4 percent, but with average losses of 31 seats, according to an Americans for Limited Government Foundation analysis.
This contrasts with more popular president from 1946 to 2002, with approval averaging 53.3 percent, but also slightly better popular vote totals at 46.8 percent, with average losses in the House of 23 seats.
The results show that, unsurprisingly, lower presidential approval ratings lead to greater losses in the House, but that there is a limit to how much drop off is to be expected stemming from discontent around a president.
2022 stands out as a key exception to this, where Biden and Democrats only lost 9 House seats and actually picked up a Senate seat despite record Republican turnout for a midterm election with 54.2 million votes. Democrats managed to bring out 51.8 million that year after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. On the other hand, in 2018, Democrats turned out 60.5 million in the midterms, which was their best turnout ever for a midterm.
If Democrats did that again this year, even if Republicans hit their best number ever, Democrats would still very likely win the House with 52.7 percent of the vote, but that might only translate into about 230 seats or so in the House. Even in 2018, the result with 53.4 percent of the vote netted about 235 seats, and President Donald Trump had about 38 percent approval at the time, per Gallup. Republicans still garnered 44.8 percent of the vote. Democrats picked up 41 seats that year, so approval still told the tale.
With that context, it is interesting to look at recent approval around what is shaping up to once again be the key issue in the 2026 Congressional midterm elections: Inflation.
In a very bleak result, 50 percent of Republicans say they either somewhat disapprove (26 percent) or strongly disapprove (24 percent) of President Trump’s handling of inflation, and yet only 4 percent of Republicans say they’ll vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress, according to the latest Ipsos poll taken May 15 to May 18.
Similarly, a whopping 81 percent of independents say they either somewhat disapprove (16 percent) or strongly disapprove (65 percent) of Trump on inflation and prices, and yet just 26 percent say they’ll definitely be voting for the Democratic candidate.
In 2022, there were similar drop-offs between presidential approval and the Congressional midterms outcome. For example, a late October 2022 Economist-YouGov poll showed that 56 percent of American disapproved of Joe Biden’s handling of inflation and prices, including 25 percent of Democrats, but only 5 percent of Democrats said they supported the Republican candidate for Congress.
And 60 percent of independents disapproved of Joe Biden’s handling of inflation, and yet only 40 percent said they supported the Republican candidate for Congress.
Overall, by Election Day, according to Gallup, Biden’s overall approval was 40 percent, but when voting came around, Democrats achieved 47.3 percent of the popular vote for the House of Representatives. Disapproval was at 55 percent to 56 percent, but Republicans only received 50 percent of the vote.
By then, Biden had been upside down in his approval since August 2021, only to worsen as time went on and U.S. households became increasingly dissatisfied with his performance — and with the state of the economy.
By the time October 2024 rolled around, Biden was out of the race, with 58 percent disapproving of his handling of inflation, including 23 percent of Democrats and 61 percent of independents, but when it came to voting, only 3 percent of Democrats and 39 percent of independents were slated to support President Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris.
This can also be seen in overall approval for Biden. By November 2024, according to Gallup, Biden had 37 percent approval, but when it came to actual act of voting, Harris received 48.3 percent of the popular vote. Disapproval was 58 percent, but President Trump only got 49.8 percent of the popular vote.
Partisan voting habits are actually very difficult to break.
Still, approval tends to track the winners and losers in campaigns, but might not always be completely reliable at predicting the margins of victory — although it’s pretty good — which especially in midterms, is the key question that will impact the balance of power.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
