In a midterm year where the GOP is the party in control of the White House and Congress, historical precedent dictates that the out-of-power party usually harnesses a surge of motivation to reclaim power in the election. Two and a half months out from the general election, Democrats aren’t leading significantly, particularly among the younger half of the electorate.
A decline in support for Democrats is significant among millennials and Gen Z — groups that combined now account for nearly half of all eligible voters in the United States. By the 2028 election, they will account for over half.
The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) at Tufts University indicates that in the Gen Z cohort alone, 50 million voters will be eligible to vote in November. The data shows that by the midterm election, nearly 8.5 million new voters who were ineligible to vote in the 2024 election will have aged into the voting pool.
But will they vote for Democrats? Data is mixed but vote intention and favorability for Democrats have declined significantly since 2022.
Part of this could be explained by younger voters claiming the Democratic Party has not gone “far enough” in stopping the Trump Administration. After all, 53 percent of Gen Z hold a favorable view of socialism. But Democratic identity and favorability are declining while Republican identity and favorability are largely stable.
Looking at the YouGov congressional ballot voting intention tracker, it is apparent that Democrats have not gained ground among Gen Z and millennial voters over the past four years. In fact, despite Democrats taking every opportunity to push the narrative that the Trump Administration has made life more difficult, young voters are less enthusiastic about supporting Democrats now than they were in the fall of 2022.
Among Gen Z, young voters are planning to support Democrats by 27 percentage points (53 percent to 26 percent). A full 16 percent are unsure. Compare this to late August of 2022 during the Biden Administration, when Gen Z planned to support Democrats by 36.6 points (56 percent to 19.4 percent).
This is not a significant swing toward the GOP, but it is evidence that even in an election year where Democrats have the opportunity to construct a narrative blaming Republicans for issues like inflation or the war with Iran, young voters aren’t necessarily buying it.
Part of that could be because some young voters don’t believe Democrats go far enough in pushing a radical progressive agenda, considering 53 percent of Gen Z hold a favorable view of socialism according to a Cato Institute–Morning Consult survey from June 25–26. Whatever the case may be, the Democratic Party has failed to rally young voters during an off-year election where Republicans are in control of the White House and Congress.
The Democratic Party’s favorability among Gen Z has also flipped upside down since the fall of 2022. Today, the party holds a net favorability rating of -5.7 points. In the fall of 2022, under the Biden Administration, young people had a much rosier view of Democrats. At that time, the party had a net favorability of +17.6 percentage points, with 51.7 percent holding a favorable view of Democrats and 34.1 percent holding a negative view.
The decline for Democrats among millennials (aged 30–44) has been pronounced compared to 2022 voting intention. Today, millennials plan to support Democrats by just 13.5 percentage points (48.9 percent to 35.4 percent). On August 30, 2022, millennials were pledging to support Democrats by 31 percentage points (55.4 percent to 24.1 percent). This amounts to shaving 17.5 points off the Democratic advantage compared to four years ago.
Overall favorability for the Democratic Party has also plunged among millennials compared to 2022, with the party’s net favorability sitting at -18.8 percentage points as of this writing. In the fall of 2022, Democrats’ net favorability was positive by 6 percentage points, with 47.3 percent holding a favorable view of the party and 41.3 percent holding an unfavorable view.
These numbers are supported elsewhere, too. In the 52nd Edition of the Harvard Youth Poll released this spring, Democratic Party affiliation had dropped substantially among young voters compared to 2018. Only 28 percent of young people identify as Democrats now, down from 40 percent in 2018. The survey showed “Strong Democrat” identity fell from 22 percent to 16 percent. Republican identity actually rose — from 21 percent to 25 percent.
Despite a perfect storm of events Democrats could capitalize on, from cost-of-living woes to the war with Iran, young voters appear apathetic about swapping Democrats into Congress. They do not appear to believe Democrats can or would do any better. Not to mention, data shows that on the issues the GOP has focused on — such as deportation of illegal immigrants, massive reductions in crime across major cities, slashing foreign aid to the lowest number since 2004, and a resurgence of the American manufacturing sector — voters are satisfied with the Trump Administration and Republicans.
This is not to say that Republicans should not prepare for a fight in November, but it means the tidal wave could be blunted. Long-term, a party losing its edge by double digits with the younger generation over a short four-year period does not bode well for Democrats.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
