No need to panic, the 10-year, 2-year treasuries spread was bound to invert eventually. But why did the Fed wait until after 2016 to hike rates?
http://dailytorch.com/2019/08/no-need-to-panic-the-10-year-2-year-treasuries-spread-was-bound-to-invert-eventually-but-why-did-the-fed-wait-until-after-2016-to-hike-rates/

The 10-year, 2-year treasuries spread was bound to invert eventually. It’s been a full 12 years since the last inversion, after all, and a full 10 years since the last recession. Is anyone really surprised? The economy is not a perpetual motion machine. Every recession is different, and the next one may not even hit until after the 2020 election is all over with. We’ll see. We’ve been here before, and we’ll survive it. But with talk of negative interest rates or policies like universal basic income in the wake of the next downturn, what we need to make certain of is that liberty, limited government and capitalism survive, as well. What do you think?

Democratic candidates’ hateful labeling of President Trump and his supporters as white supremacists is wrong, dehumanizing and dangerous:
http://dailytorch.com/2019/08/democratic-candidates-hateful-labeling-of-president-trump-and-his-supporters-as-white-supremacists-is-wrong-dehumanizing-and-dangerous/

Leading Democrats for the presidential nomination have apparently decided that their path to victory in the wake of the El Paso and Dayton mass shootings lays with demonizing President Donald Trump and his supporters as white supremacists and racists. They’re just saying it aloud now. One hopes this is just a cynical ploy to boost their poll numbers as the New Hampshire primary and the Iowa caucuses near, but it is hard not to start to worry that this is the radicalization of a mob that is thirsty for mob justice. Doesn’t anyone think this is way over the top? Or worried that this sort of dehumanizing rhetoric has dangerous implications for the future of this country? Or could be construed as another incitement to and legitimization of political violence? This is beyond irresponsible, it is reckless and dangerous. What do you think?

Deficit likely to come in just shy of $1 trillion in 2019, latest Treasury figures show:
http://dailytorch.com/2019/08/deficit-likely-to-come-in-just-shy-of-1-trillion-in-2019-latest-treasury-figures-show/

With just two months remaining in fiscal year 2019, come Sept. 30, the U.S. budget deficit appears likely to come in just shy of $1 trillion, the latest data from the U.S. Treasury shows. Since 1980, the debt has grown on average 8.8 percent every fiscal year, but during that same period, the U.S. economy has only averaged 5.4 percent nominal growth economic nominally before adjusting for inflation. As a result, the debt is now 105 percent of the economy. And if those trends were to continue, the debt will top $100 trillion in 2037, and exceed 193 percent debt to GDP. What does that look like? Just ask Japan, with a 200 percent debt to GDP ratio, whose economy has barely grown nominally in 20 years amid a declining population. What can be done to prevent such an outcome?

Trade in goods deficit with China down 10 percent first half of 2019, or $18.8 billion:
http://dailytorch.com/2019/08/trade-in-goods-deficit-with-china-down-10-percent-first-half-of-2019-or-18-8-billion/

The U.S. trade in goods deficit with China is down 10 percent in the first six months of 2019, or $18.8 billion, compared to 2018, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. And that’s with the first tranche of tariffs by President Donald Trump that was in place until May. Then, Trump raised the tariff to 25 percent for the $250 billion of goods and in July he added another 10 percent tariff on the remaining $300 billion of goods. If it hurts bad enough, it might be able to force China to the table, but with China’s devaluation of the yuan, the Fed has to get the dollar right and not let it get too strong or it could undermine everything the administration is hoping to achieve. What do you think?

After El Paso and Dayton, are we about to unleash the thought police on the American people?
http://dailytorch.com/2019/08/after-el-paso-and-dayton-are-we-about-to-unleash-the-thought-police-on-the-american-people/

Is the federal government going to be regulating hate speech on social media after the El Paso and Dayton shootings? President Donald Trump says he is “directing the Department of Justice to work in… partnership with local, state, and federal agencies, as well as social media companies, to develop tools that can detect mass shooters before they strike.” Sounds like another mass surveillance program to find terrorists in our soup. Are we witnessing the birth of the thought police—again?

Want to stop China from manipulating the yuan and the dollar? Bar it from buying treasuries, Mr. President:
http://dailytorch.com/2019/08/want-to-stop-china-from-manipulating-the-yuan-and-the-dollar-bar-it-from-buying-treasuries-mr-president/

Now that the U.S. Treasury has labeled China a currency manipulator, President Donald Trump should consider barring it from purchasing any more treasuries as a penalty. After all, China needs to keep buying treasuries to exert its trade advantage and keep the yuan weak to boost its exports. Without treasuries to fall back on, the yuan could appreciate vis a vis the dollar, even with the fixed exchange rate. That would give the tariffs, now 25 percent on $250 billion of Chinese goods, and 10 percent on the rest of the $300 billion of them, some real teeth. It would also create a very real penalty for currency manipulation, and serve as a deterrent to other countries that want to play games with the dollar. What do you think?

China proves it manipulates currency with immediate yuan devaluation upon new 10 percent tariff on $300 billion of goods, rate cuts, Treasury acts with official designation:
http://dailytorch.com/2019/08/china-proves-it-manipulates-currency-with-immediate-yuan-devaluation-upon-new-10-percent-tariff-on-300-billion-of-goods-rate-cuts-treasury-acts-with-official-designation/

Immediately upon President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new 10 percent tariff on $300 billion of goods shipped to the U.S. that came atop the 25 percent on $250 billion of goods, coupled with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, China has responded in kind with another devaluation of the yuan by another 2.6 percent. This comes atop the devaluation in May in response to the initial imposition by Trump of 25 percent tariffs on the first tranche of $250 billion of goods shipped to the U.S. Now, with the most recent move, the total devaluation rises to 4.8 percent since May. That is absolutely currency manipulation. Trump was right about Beijing. What do you think?

Massacres in El Paso, Dayton underscore that political violence right or left is never the answer:
http://dailytorch.com/2019/08/massacres-in-el-paso-dayton-underscore-that-political-violence-right-or-left-is-never-the-answer/

After a bloody weekend that saw 29 killed in mass shootings in El Paso, Texas and Dayton, Ohio, the nation must once again face and confront the scourge of political violence and terrorism that is becoming increasingly prevalent in our society on the extreme ends of the political spectrum, right and left. An anti-immigrant manifesto that has been linked to the shooter in El Paso who supported President Donald Trump and praised the Christchurch mosque shooting in New Zealand and the racist manifesto the shooter left behind there. The Dayton shooter on the other hand was a self-proclaimed leftist and Satanist who supported Sen. Elizabeth Warren who had previously spoke against mass shootings such as Parkland, and who on the anniversary of violence in Charlottlesville, Va. wrote, “Kill every fascist” and called the ICE firebomber a “martyr.” The violence and the varied motivations for it demonstrate that violence is never the answer, and whether it comes from the right or left, we must stand united against it as a nation — before it is too late. Will you stand with us against these despicable acts?

Trump increases pressure on China for trade deal with new 10 percent tariff on the other $300 billion of goods while Chinese economy reels:
http://dailytorch.com/2019/08/trump-increases-pressure-on-china-for-trade-deal-with-new-10-percent-tariff-on-the-other-300-billion-of-goods-while-chinese-economy-reels/

China has proven itself to be an unreliable trade partner in its negotiations, says President Donald Trump, and now he is levying another 10 percent tariff on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese goods that were untaxed. This comes atop the 25 percent tariff on another $250 billion of goods, which is expecting to raise more than $50 billion in revenue this year. Trump cited failure by Chinese President Xi Jinping to follow through on its commitments to stop fentanyl shipments, import more U.S. agricultural products and the failure to conclude a trade deal. With China’s economy taking a hit, is the pressure starting to pay off?

Fed rate cut unsurprising in context of China and Europe devaluations, weak inflation:
http://dailytorch.com/2019/08/fed-rate-cut-unsurprising-in-context-of-china-and-europe-devaluations-weak-inflation/

The Federal Reserve is cutting its key interest rate to a range of 2 percent to 2.25 percent, the central bank announced on July 31, citing slowing inflation. The decision was also coupled with the decision by the Fed to stop selling securities back to the market sooner than expected, and comes as China continues to devalue the yuan another 3 percent in response to the imposition by President Donald Trump of 25 percent tariffs on up to $250 billion of goods shipped to the U.S., and Europe’s recent statement in June that it could be preparing to cut interest rates. Should we expect more rate cuts, or is this it for now?