Consumer inflation has once again begun outpacing average weekly earnings in April, 3.8 percent to 3.6 percent respectively over the past 12 months as oil and gasoline prices continue popping during the Iran War, according to the latest data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, in what must be a worrying sign to Republicans hoping to hold onto the House and Senate in 2026 — and even the White House in 2028.
Since 2022, when inflation previously peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022, inflation has consistently polled as the top issue for voters across every demographic: sex, race, age, party and so on.
And historically, whenever inflation has outpaced personal incomes on any sustained basis — just a few months is enough — it has proven to be disastrous for the White House incumbent party, as it was Gerald Ford in 1976 (15 consecutive months of inflation outpacing incomes in 1974-1975), Jimmy Carter in 1980 (15 consecutive months in 1979-1980), George H.W. Bush (12 consecutive months in 1990-1991), George W. Bush (4 consecutive months in 2008) and Joe Biden (12 consecutive months in 2022). In each of those cases the White House incumbents lost the following general presidential election.
In 2009, Barack Obama also got off to a rocky start, with the economy in outright deflation, incomes were falling faster than prices, which has the same wealth-sapping effect, from Jan. 2009 to Jan. 2010, 13 consecutive months. Democrats went on to the worst midterm performance since 1938 in losing 62 House seats. By 2012, the ship had righted itself and Obama was reelected.
Oddly, in the midst of the Great Inflation of 2021-2023, Joe Biden had a not so bad midterm election cycle, only losing 9 House seats, as Democrats were able to boost their party’s turnout after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. But by 2024, the weight of the economic issues broke the dam, and propelled President Donald Trump back into the White House in 2024.
In this rather narrow view of the U.S. electorate — James Carville summed it up in 1992 with “It’s the economy, stupid!” — besides preventing nuclear Armageddon, presidents have one very basic job to oversee an economy where Americans get wealthier. In short, incomes must increase faster than prices. All other issues aside, inflation is the one that moves independents who are not married to either party. If the American people are better off than they were four years earlier, things are a lot easier for the incumbents.
Barring an unforeseen recession such as the 2020 Covid recession, which wasn’t induced by overheating from inflation but rather the temporary mass unemployment of the economic lockdowns, that easily changed the outcome of the 2020 election for a variety of reasons including changes to voting rules as President Trump otherwise looked primed for an easy win, every president who performed the feat of incomes outpacing inflation got reelected: Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama.
To put the issue into perspective, prior to the Iran war, American households were set to break even on the post-Covid inflation that began in 2021 by January 2027, according to an Americans for Limited Government Foundation analysis of consumer prices and average weekly earnings.
Now, with the latest readings and the price pop from the war, the American people will not break even from the inflation that began five years ago until April 2028. And that’s assuming prices and incomes stay where they are now. Depending on what happens, it very well could be the American people will never break even from that inflation during President Trump’s second term.
And, yes, that might very well be the price of the war. Deal with it. Just a few more months of this, and the 2028 window for breaking even on the post-Covid inflation could easily go out the window, so just get it out of your head. Instead, it might be wise to consider why this keeps happening.
It’s a dire outlook to a dire problem that has plagued administrations since the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s, the Iranian Revolution of 1979, the Gulf War, the Iraq War and the Ukraine War. That is, global oil supply disruptions have coincided with high U.S. inflation, which has not merely a tendency but an extremely high likelihood of disrupting voter attitudes towards the economy and therefore the White House incumbent party.
At the end of the day, the same issue that sunk the Biden presidency could easily sink Trump’s second term, but it could also come back to haunt whoever wins the next election, too.
It begs the question: What is each party’s plan to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and get prices back down? If inflation is the top issue, then how the war resolves (also the war in Ukraine which also disrupts global oil supplies) must be the real policy issue to consider. Make the 2026 elections a referendum on how to get Iran to do what we want.
At this point, simple versions of such a choice election might be to just let Iran develop nuclear weapons in the hopes they won’t use them and they’ll be really nice and reopen the strait, or to destroy their capacity to ever produce nuclear weapons and to reopen the strait — by force or by agreement. Choose your poison.
One thing President Trump has going for him is that this is his final term and the White House incumbent party, in this case the Republicans, usually don’t do too well in midterm elections anyway. Might as well fix this problem now.
Future presidents regardless of party should not have to be hobbled with this kind of crisis again, 2026 and 2028 be damned if needs be. The U.S. does not make national security decisions based on reading polls or who might do better in elections. The pursuit of political power is not a suicide pact whereby parties would sacrifice national safety.
Belief to the contrary could prove fatal to the Iranian negotiators if they attempt to leverage U.S. political and economic situation. There is also something unseemly about domestic media and Democrats (and a few Republicans) who appear to be siding with Iran as the conflict’s resolution hangs in the balance.
President Trump might as well finish the job, end the Iran nuclear threat once and for all and get the strait open — one way or another. No other president ever had the will except perhaps for Ronald Reagan’s Operation Earnest Will to escort Kuwaiti oil tankers through the strait in 1987-1988. But these are once in a generation leaders. It’d be nice if Congress helped but they’re mostly cowards (one of whom might be the next president) so President Trump might just have to do it all by himself. Security first. Consumer prices and the politics will just have to take care of themselves afterward.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government.
