While tackling inflation is still a top priority for Americans, a positive direction on economic indicators like the stock market and jobs — including unemployment still low at 4.3 percent in April — is earning President Donald Trump a significant bump in approval among Hispanic voters, with the President’s approval rating rising twelve points since March. Hispanic voters are also nine points more likely to support a Republican candidate in the midterms than they were in early March.
President Trump’s overall approval rating sits at 40 percent among Hispanics in the latest Economist/YouGov survey conducted May 1-4, up twelve points from the March 6-9 survey. His approval rating among Hispanics is now just two points below his approval rating among whites.
Where that increase in support stems from appears to be a brighter economic outlook among Hispanics, despite inflation remaining a concern. With tax season wrapped up, the S&P 500 recording its best month since November 2020 in April, key manufacturing indexes recording positive momentum over the past two months, and a growing list of companies returning to U.S. to do business, voters are starting to see positive economic indicators.
The Economist/YouGov survey shows President Trump’s approval rating on handling jobs and the economy sits at 43 percent among Hispanics as of May 1. That is the highest rating out of Black (nine percent) and White (40 percent) adults in the survey. President Trump’s 43 percent approval rating on jobs and the economy among Hispanics is up sixteen points from March.
Trump’s approval rating among Hispanics has also risen thirteen points on taxes and government spending since early March, indicating that Hispanics left tax season with a higher approval of the administration’s fiscal approach.
Even on inflation, which President Trump has been attempting to address by forging a peace deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the President has improved with Hispanics. His approval rating is up seven points on inflation, going from 25 percent in early March to 32 percent.
President Trump’s handling of the war with Iran has also improved his standing among Hispanics according to the survey. In the March 9 survey, a quarter of Hispanics approved of his handling of Iran, and in the May survey, that number had increased ten points to 35 percent.
The survey reveals that over the past two months Hispanics have improved their view of President Trump, with their views on Trump’s handling of the Iran war, taxes, jobs, and even inflation improving significantly.
Hispanics have also moved nine points toward supporting a Republican over a Democrat in the generic congressional ballot according to the Economist/YouGov survey. In March, 27 percent planned to support a Republican in November, and that number is now at 36 percent.
What the data shows is that despite inflation continuing to loom over the economy, progress on other metrics, including the stock market and jobs, are moving the needle in Trump’s favor.
According to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released April 10, the Consumer Price Index increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March. The report noted that energy prices drove the increase in consumer prices, stating that the index for energy rose 10.9 percent in March, driven by a 21.2-percent increase in the index for gasoline.
The Trump Administration has been adamant about securing a peace deal with Iran that safely reopens the Strait of Hormuz, and begins to allow oil to trade freely again, which should go a long way toward reducing inflation over the next few months if a deal can be struck soon.
As of Thursday, May 7, Iran is reviewing the latest U.S. proposal to end the war, and that proposal would determine control over the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. is pushing for the Strait to be opened and for trade to resume which should lead to a decline in fuel prices.
While inflation is still a glaring issue on the minds of voters, it hasn’t done as much damage as it could have to Republicans according to a review of the data. Despite only 60 percent of Republicans approving of President Trump’s handling of inflation, 86 percent plan to vote for a Republican candidate for Congress, and only one percent say they are voting for a Democrat.
There has been a measurable shift among Hispanics over the past two months, with Hispanic voters more likely, not less, to support a Republican candidate and significantly increasing their positive view of President Trump. Despite the United States struggling to get inflation under control, President Trump’s approach on other metrics appears to be working. Whether this bump carries into the midterms is yet to be seen, but seeing double-digit increases in approval across several issues is worth keeping an eye on.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
