03.03.2023

As 10-year, 2-year inversion reaches new lows in cycle, peak employment persists as Fed hopes inflation will come down all by itself

By Robert Romano The spread between 10-year treasuries and 2-year treasuries, often a reliable recession predictor,  has been inverted since June 13 , following another brief inversion on March 31 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the worsening global supply crisis that has led to crushing consumer inflation the past year, which still remains elevated at 6.4 percent over twelve months […]

03.02.2023

Trump plan for automatic reciprocal tariffs upon foreign currency devaluations a game changer after goods trade deficit with China rose $30 billion to $382.9 billion in 2022

By Robert Romano Former President Donald Trump, Republican candidate for president in 2024, is proposing automatic reciprocal trade tariffs on goods from foreign trade partners in response to competitive currency devaluations including China, the trade in goods deficit which rose $30.4 billion to $382.9 billion in 2022, […]

02.27.2023

Trump vows ban on $8.4 trillion ESG juggernaut that is violating federal antitrust laws by halting expansion of U.S. energy production and violating Title VII of Civil Rights Act with racial, gender hiring quotas

By Robert Romano Former President Donald Trump, who is once again running for president as a Republican in 2024, has promised in a video post on Truth Social to ban via executive order and changes to federal law Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) retirement investments that have led to divestment from traditional U.S. energy […]

02.20.2023

Unadjusted unemployment continued claims up 755,000 since Oct. 2022 after peak inflation. When will unemployment begin to tick upward? 

By Robert Romano Non-seasonally adjusted unemployment continued claims have steadily increased by 755,000 since Oct. 2022 , the latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows, amid a smattering of layoffs in certain sectors as labor markets continue to show signs they have no further room for expansion amid […]

02.15.2023

As inflation remains elevated at 6.4 percent, there is still a bumpy road ahead for the U.S. economy

By Robert Romano Consumer inflation remains elevated 6.4 percent over the past 12 months, with a 0.5 percent increase in January, according to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Food was up 0.5 percent—and 10.1 percent for the past year. Energy was up 2 percent, […]

02.14.2023

Cartoon: Blue Plate Special

By A.F. Branco Click here for a higher level resolution version.

02.07.2023

If Biden won’t tell Congress how he’s going to spend the debt ceiling increase, why should he expect Congress to hand him a blank check?

By Robert Romano “President Biden’s failure to submit his budget to Congress by the deadline for the third year in a row, along with my Democrat colleagues’ inability to even pass a budget out of committee for the last two years, reinforces a resounding message that fiscal […]

02.02.2023

Fed keeps hiking interest rates while unemployment remains low, but is the U.S. economy in for a hard landing or a soft one?

By Robert Romano The Federal Reserve has once again hiked the federal funds rate that it controls in its Feb. 1 meeting of the Board of Governors, now reaching 4.5 to 4.75 percent, as consumer and producer inflation, which remains elevated, continues to cool off its highs in 2022. […]

01.24.2023

Federal Reserve still on target to hike interest rates as M2 money supply begins to decrease as the inflation tax becomes the interest rate tax

By Robert Romano After accommodating the greatest monetary expansion in American history during Covid production slowdowns, lockdowns and temporary pandemic unemployment the American people found themselves in 2020, in which the Federal Reserve set interest rates to near-zero and the M2 money supply increased by about $6 trillion, the past year, […]

01.19.2023

No economic cataclysm came on Jan. 19 after Biden debt ceiling warning

By Robert Romano Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Congress that the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling was coming due on Jan. 19 and that Congress had better act to increase or else, boy, would there be hell to pay. The sun rose on Jan. 19. […]

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