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06.14.2022

Cartoon: Captain Oblivious

06.13.2022

Recession predictor 10-year, 2-year treasuries spread inverts once again amid crushing inflation

By Robert Romano The spread between 10-year and 2-year treasuries , a reliable indicator of incoming recessions that has predicted almost every recession in modern economic history, inverted once again overnight on June 13 amid financial markets turmoil with interest rates rising rapidly, the dollar strengthening and equities markets crashing. That is almost certainly terrible news for President Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats ahead […]

06.09.2022

Poll: 55 percent say America is already in a recession, including 41 percent of Democrats, 75 percent of Republicans and 56 percent of Independents

By Robert Romano 55 percent of Americans say that the U.S. economy is already in a recession, according to the latest polling from Economist/YouGov taken June 4 through June 7 , including 41 percent of Democrats, 75 percent of Republicans and 56 percent of independents. Politically, that is usually bad news for the incumbent party occupying the White House, in […]

06.09.2022

U.S. spring wheat planting lags after winter wheat harvest down 8 percent in 2022 as world waits for Ukraine

By Robert Romano Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that U.S. winter wheat production will be down 8 percent in 2022, from 1.28 billion bushels in 2021 to 1.17 billion bushels expected this year amid drought in Kansas and other areas plus lower yields. Adding to the misery, planting for spring wheat […]

06.06.2022

16-64-year-old labor participation is still lower than before Covid, but not by much. Is this peak employment?

By Robert Romano 16-64-year-olds have almost fully returned to U.S. labor markets after the Covid pandemic, the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows . In Feb. 2020, right before the Covid pandemic would shut down the global economy for several months, labor participation among 16-to-64-year-olds was 74.4 percent. By April 2020, when more than […]

06.02.2022

House Republicans introduce bill to ban ‘woke’ ESG investing in $762 billion federal employee retirement plan

By Robert Romano U.S. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) has introduced legislation, the “No ESG at TSP Act” that would block the $762 billion federal employee retirement plan from making any investments in funds that utilize Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors to restrict capital flows to oil and gas development in the […]

06.02.2022

Cartoon: In the Dark

05.31.2022

$30.4 trillion national debt, strong dollar underscore perils of world’s reserve currency as treasuries rally

By Robert Romano The combination of the $30.4 trillion national debt and the strong dollar underscore both the advantages and the perils of the U.S. dollar’s so-called “exorbitant privilege” as the world’s reserve currency. That is, when the economy is in turbulent waters and a recession appears to loom, financial institutions and central […]

05.27.2022

Cartoon: Above Their Fray

05.26.2022

Elon Musk is right. Humanity faces a ‘population collapse’ and labor shortages thanks to low fertility that will hinder the global economy.

By Robert Romano Fertility in the U.S. remains below 2 live births per woman for the thirteenth year in a row, at 1.66 live births per woman in 2021, up slightly from 1.64 in 2020, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) . 2.1 live births per woman is considered the rate needed for […]

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