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By Robert Romano The spread between 10-year and 2-year treasuries , a reliable indicator of incoming recessions that has predicted almost every recession in modern economic history, inverted once again overnight on June 13 amid financial markets turmoil with interest rates rising rapidly, the dollar strengthening and equities markets crashing. That is almost certainly terrible news for President Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats ahead […]

By Robert Romano 55 percent of Americans say that the U.S. economy is already in a recession, according to the latest polling from Economist/YouGov taken June 4 through June 7 , including 41 percent of Democrats, 75 percent of Republicans and 56 percent of independents. Politically, that is usually bad news for the incumbent party occupying the White House, in […]

By Robert Romano Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that U.S. winter wheat production will be down 8 percent in 2022, from 1.28 billion bushels in 2021 to 1.17 billion bushels expected this year amid drought in Kansas and other areas plus lower yields. Adding to the misery, planting for spring wheat […]

By Robert Romano 16-64-year-olds have almost fully returned to U.S. labor markets after the Covid pandemic, the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows . In Feb. 2020, right before the Covid pandemic would shut down the global economy for several months, labor participation among 16-to-64-year-olds was 74.4 percent. By April 2020, when more than […]

By Robert Romano U.S. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) has introduced legislation, the “No ESG at TSP Act” that would block the $762 billion federal employee retirement plan from making any investments in funds that utilize Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors to restrict capital flows to oil and gas development in the […]

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By Robert Romano The combination of the $30.4 trillion national debt and the strong dollar underscore both the advantages and the perils of the U.S. dollar’s so-called “exorbitant privilege” as the world’s reserve currency. That is, when the economy is in turbulent waters and a recession appears to loom, financial institutions and central […]

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By Robert Romano Fertility in the U.S. remains below 2 live births per woman for the thirteenth year in a row, at 1.66 live births per woman in 2021, up slightly from 1.64 in 2020, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) . 2.1 live births per woman is considered the rate needed for […]